• 27.01.2025

Labour loses their first by-election in Liverpool since 1997

An inconsequential blip, or signs of trouble ahead? Plus, your weekly roundup

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The big story: The Lib Dems have broken Labour’s 27-year by-election winning streak in Liverpool

Top line: The Liberal Democrats’ Josie Mullen has won the Much Woolton and Hunts Cross by-election, which was triggered after former member Dave Aizlewood stepped down in December, citing health issues. But how significant is the win?

Context: The Much Woolton and Hunts Cross constituency was created in 2023 following a 2022 review by the Local Government Boundary Commission as a two-member ward from the south and eastern part of the former Allerton and Hunts Cross ward, with portions of the former Woolton ward.

The 4^th May 2023 election sent two Lib Dem councillors to the council: Aizlewood and outgoing Allerton and Hunts Cross councillor Mirna Juarez, who resigned from the party in August last year.

Nevertheless, elements within Labour were clearly confident they could take the ward. In the last full council meeting before last Thursday’s election, Nick Small – Labour’s councillor for City Centre North and cabinet member for growth and economy – declared victory a day early:

“I would remind councillor [Carl] Cashman [Liverpool Liberal Democrats and council opposition leader] that until recently, in that ward – and I won’t mention the name of that ward – but in that ward, there were until recently two Liberal Democrat councillors,” Small said. “That will change tomorrow, councillor Cashman.”

Small’s statement, which resulted in an immediate rebuke from the Lord Mayor, split the council down party lines.

“That’s just Nick being playful,” Harry Doyle, Labour’s councillor for Knotty Ash and Dovecot Park, said in a post on X, while Rob McAllister-Bell, Doyle’s Lib Dem counterpart for Mossley Hill, said Small had risked breaking the Councillor Code of Conduct to prognosticate a Labour win.

The result: Despite Small’s certitude, Josie Mullen, a former Green Party campaigner who previously served for a decade as a Lib Dem, saw off the challenge of Labour’s Tanya Blake with 1,011 votes, representing 51.11% of the vote. It was the first time since 1997 that Labour had lost a by-election in Liverpool.

Josie Mullen celebrating with supporters. Photo: courtesy of the Liberal Democrats

Cashman was quick to congratulate his fellow party member. “This is a huge moment for the Liberal Democrats in Liverpool,” he said in a statement. “Across the city, the Labour Party is on notice. People are fed up with Labour here locally because they’ve taken voters for granted and nationally because Keir Starmer’s Party keep betraying pensioners and working people.”

“It’s clear Liverpool Labour are still tainted by the Anderson era and the cloud of investigations into corruption,” Josie Mullen said of her win. “I’m going to work hard holding Labour to account. The money wasted by years of Labour incompetence is money that should have been going back into our communities to help residents — cleaning our streets, getting potholes fixed, and dealing with problem parking.”

On X, Cashman noted that Mullen’s victory ended Labour’s 27-year unbeaten streak in Liverpool by-elections, as did the Lib Dem peer and former chief executive of the party, Chris Rennard, who cited Labour’s position on the winter fuel allowance as a key issue.

Labour’s response: Labour, however, were keen to downplay the result. Labour’s Liam Robinson, the council’s leader, tempered his congratulations for Mullen on X with: “Very similar result to 2023 elections with Lib Dem share of the vote down.”

“Ridiculous narrative here from the Lib Dems,” wrote Doyle in response to Rennard. “They fail to mention the by-election today is in a Lib Dem held seat they won with 60% in 2023.”

“The Liverpool Lib Dems are losing ground under Carl Cashman’s leadership in their own heartlands,” Small agreed, now deciding Much Woolton and Hunts Cross had been a “safe seat” for Cashman’s party all along. “This is not the win they are spinning it to be.”

Liverpool councillors bickering on X is not a recent development, of course. The fact is that the Lib Dems’ 51.1% did represent a 2.4% swing away from them, according to Election Maps UK. Though it’s also important to note that fewer than 2,000 people turned out for the vote.

But a low turnout is not unusual for a local by-election. In last month’s Blackbrook by-election in St Helens, Reform UK’s Victor Floyd won with only 546 votes – just over half the amount cast for Mullen in the Much Woolton and Hunts Cross contest.

And Labour’s share of the vote also went down – by an even larger 4.2 points. The Conservatives’ vote also fell by 2.3 points (Incidentally, Woolton was the last ever ward to return a Conservative councillor — Steve Fitzsimmons, who lost his seat in 1998. He later defected to Labour in 2011.) Meanwhile, the Greens got a bump of the vote share from 6.37% to 8.59%.

The only other party to increase their vote share was Reform, who didn’t run in 2023. This time, their candidate Adam Giles Heatherington took 11% of the vote.

Bottom line: If predicting by-election results is no small task, trying to make prophecies from them afterwards is almost always a fool’s errand. Low turnouts, hyper-local issues, and a plethora of data from other constituencies in the region threaten to turn psephology into fortune-telling. Nevertheless, all parties will be looking closely at these outcomes to try and learn and plan for the future.

While Labour councillors point to the declining Lib Dem vote share, along with Juarez’s resignation, as evidence of their challenge fading, Cashman sees the result as proof they can increase the fifteen council seats they took in 2023.

The one party that will be looking at this result as an unambiguous positive is Reform, who finished second in a majority of Merseyside parliamentary seats in last year’s general election. Just as they’ve done in St Helens, and just like they’re threatening to do in Runcorn, Nigel Farage’s party is eager to gain a foothold in Liverpool’s local politics. Dare anyone bet against them?

Your Post briefing

The rape crisis centre RASA is being forced to make “drastic changes” to its services in Merseyside after government funding cuts created a £100,000 shortfall in its annual budget. RASA, which has offices in Birkenhead and Liverpool, supports over 600 victims of sexual violence across the region, including children. Last month, the Ministry of Justice informed them there would be large cuts to its funding, despite demands for their services increasing by 400% over the last five years. To balance its budget, RASA will have to let go of one full time Independent Sexual Violence Advisor (ISVA), one full time children's worker, and get rid of its translation services and external psychology and counselling for staff and volunteers. The charity has now set up a Just Giving page with the aim of raising the funds needed to avoid its services being reduced. Donate to that fundraiser here.

Plans to build a new special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) school have now been approved by Warrington Council. An application to build a two-storey school on Blackbrook Avenue was submitted last year, with councillor Pail Warburton stressing there is an “acute need” for special needs services in Warrington, with demand “only likely to increase” in the near future. The school will provide 56 spaces for students aged seven to 16, with approximately 26 staff, and will include a playing field, a games area and parking.

And two sons from Merseyside are appealing for information about their father’s working life after he died of mesothelioma — a cancer caused by exposure to asbestos. David Watson, from Knotty Ash, spent most of his life working in construction across the North West, from 1952 all the way up until 2023 when he became ill. His sons Kevin and Graham are attempting to pinpoint exactly when he contracted the disease, which can often be symptomless for decades. David had multiple periods of employment with employers including Allen Building, Bill Fawley Construction, Hynd Construction, John Williams, Lockwoods Construction, Unit Construction and WM Tomkinson & Sons, and his family are hoping to speak with others he may have worked with. “My dad was fit and healthy, but his decline through mesothelioma left us devastated,” says Kevin. “When he was told the news of his condition, he couldn’t take it in. His first reaction was ‘This can’t happen, I’ve got a wife at home who I need to care for’.” Below is a photo of David. If you think you may have worked with him at any of the sites listed above — or any others — please email Christopher Briggs at Slater and Gordon on Christopher.briggs@slatergordon.uk.

Pictured is David Watson. Photo: Slater and Gordon

Photo of the week

At the end of a cold, wet January, it’s almost hard to remember times when it was hot enough to hang out in Liverpool city centre in nothing but a bikini. Today’s photo of the week has us fantasising about sweet, sweet sunshine: in June 1976, during a heatwave that saw temperatures over 32 degrees, 16-year-old salesgirl Moya Kirkby beat the heat during her lunch break with little help from King V and Queen Mary.

Post Picks

📚A fantastic pairing at Waterstones tonight — esteemed thriller writers Rob Parker and Stuart Turton discuss their most recent novels The Troubled Deep and The Last Murder At The End Of The World. Grab a ticket for that one here.

🍸At Liverpool Gin Distillery, learn everything you’ve ever wanted to know about cheese with a session from the Liverpool Cheese Company. The event runs from 7pm until 9.30pm on Wednesday, pairing cheeses with wine, gin, beer and even tea. Tickets here.

🎸On Friday, Jacaranda Baltic celebrates its 1st birthday with a host of local talent. Tickets are £8.50 and the event begins at 7pm. Find out more here.

🕹️Liverpool’s Anime and Gaming Convention kicks off this weekend at Aintree Racecourse. The event runs across both Saturday and Sunday, and includes cosplay workshops, panels and retro gaming. Find out more here.